The State of U.S. Tariffs

Key Takeaways

1. As of July 24th, the average statutory tariff rate stands at 11.1% after falling by about 0.3pp when Section 122 tariffs expired and were replaced with new tariffs under Section 301. Under current law, which includes several scheduled tariff increases in the coming months, this figure is set to be 11.8% by the end of this year.

2. We estimate the ultimate consumer price impact of current-law tariff policy to be about 0.7%.

3. Estimated household costs due to tariffs total about $1,100 annually under current law.

4. Over the next ten years, we estimate that current-law tariffs will raise about $1.9 trillion. These numbers are somewhat lower, though, after taking into account the negative impact of tariffs on GDP.