Our Work

Five people sitting on chairs in a carpeted room, holding job applications.
State of the Economy
Analysis
The labor market looks stable, but low UI claims data should be interpreted carefully
Ryan Nunn
Three container ships at a container port.
Trade
Interactives
Updated:
The State of U.S. Tariffs
Default Publication
Taxes
Scores
Budgetary Effects of Changing the Capital-Gains Tax Treatment of Housing During Life and at Death
US Department of the Treasury
Artificial Intelligence
Reports
How potential AI futures would play out in the current tax system
John Iselin, Ryan Nunn
Default Publication
Methodology and Documentation
Methodology
Methodology: How potential AI futures interact with the current tax system
Aerial view of a waterfront shipment port with colorful containers and blue crane equipment.
Trade
Reports
Improvements to the Budget Lab Tariff Model and a new tracking tool for making it more accessible
John Iselin, John Ricco
Spreadsheet with currency amounts
State of the Economy
Analysis
What do strong payroll numbers really tell us about the labor market?
Ryan Nunn
Parent and child walking
State of the Economy
Analysis
How did Gen X and Millennial parents manage their time?
Joshua Kendall, Ryan Nunn
stock photo for AI of man
Artificial Intelligence
Interactives
Updated:
Tracking the Impact of AI on the Labor Market
Pumping gas
Taxes
Analysis
The Distributional Effects of a Federal Gas Tax Holiday
Abhi Gupta, Maddie Lee, Ryan Nunn
Image of a busy intersection with pedestrians
State of the Economy
Analysis
How surprising is the role of healthcare employment growth in today’s labor market?
Martha Gimbel, Ryan Nunn
Image of a busy intersection with pedestrians
State of the Economy
Analysis
The Recent Rise in Information-Sector Layoffs and What it Could Tell Us About AI
Martha Gimbel, Ryan Nunn
A passport and visa with a pen
Economic Risks
Analysis
Lower Immigration Means Lower Productivity Growth
Abhi Gupta
A modern office buliding at night with lights on and off
Artificial Intelligence
Analysis
What We Do and Don't Know About How AI is Affecting the Labor Market
Martha Gimbel, Joshua Kendall, Ryan Nunn
Image of a busy intersection with pedestrians
State of the Economy
Analysis
AI Is Probably Not (Yet) the Reason for Labor Market Weakening
Ryan Nunn