Artificial Intelligence

The potential fiscal and macroeconomic implications of AI adoption can be better understood with scenario modeling.

March CPS data does not meaningfully change conclusions discussed in previous TBL releases. The data continues to indicate no meaningful impact of AI on the labor market.

We analyze several measures of AI exposure and find that they tend to agree with each other on less exposed occupations, with disagreement increasing for the more exposed jobs. The disagreement is driven less by whether a job is exposed and more by just how exposed it is.

The United States, like many developed countries, is facing a shrinking labor force as its population ages. At the same time, changes in immigration policy suggest that the American economy may not be able to rely on immigrant workers to make up the shortfall. Could technology get us out of this?

How has AI impacted the labor market? Since generative AI was first introduced nearly three years ago, surveys show widespread public anxiety about AI’s potential for job losses. While it is impossible to accurately predict the future, we can examine how U.S. employment has changed since ChatGPT’s release in November 2022.