Artificial Intelligence

We analyze several measures of AI exposure and find that they tend to agree with each other on less exposed occupations, with disagreement increasing for the more exposed jobs. The disagreement is driven less by whether a job is exposed and more by just how exposed it is.

Despite the missing October 2025 CPS data from the government shutdown, the November and December 2025 CPS do not suggest a substantial change in AI's impact on the labor market. Patterns remain flat or continue along their previous trends.

Including the September 2025 CPS release does not meaningfully change TBL's previous findings. However, some changes in dissimilarity for recent and older college grads and for the unemployed are worth highlighting.

The United States, like many developed countries, is facing a shrinking labor force as its population ages. At the same time, changes in immigration policy suggest that the American economy may not be able to rely on immigrant workers to make up the shortfall. Could technology get us out of this?

How has AI impacted the labor market? Since generative AI was first introduced nearly three years ago, surveys show widespread public anxiety about AI’s potential for job losses. While it is impossible to accurately predict the future, we can examine how U.S. employment has changed since ChatGPT’s release in November 2022.