State of the Economy

This interactive, built around Budget Lab’s Small Macro Model, aims to help users explore the differences made by selected fiscal and macroeconomic assumptions.

The Budget Lab Small Macro Model provides a simple, flexible framework for exploring potential scenarios, whether large-scale shifts like AI adoption or smaller tweaks to forecast assumptions.

The measured hiring rate understates hiring weakness since 2024, when the job-finding rate for unemployed workers continued its multi-year decline.

The economic implications of unexpected oil price increases has diminished over time in the U.S., but both GDP and prices are still adversely affected by these shocks in recent years.

An especially difficult to measure economy makes job growth number revisions more common, but it is better to wait for more data to be released before drawing drastic conclusions.

To get a read on AI and productivity, don’t look to the productivity data.

The current labor market may be fine… but workers are worried about the future

This week we will finally get the employment situation release for November from BLS. What will it say? Of course we have no idea. But there are a few points to keep in mind as we head into the release.