Three container ships at a container port.
All Topics

Trade

The economic and fiscal effects of trade and tariff policy.

Three container ships at a container port.
Interactives
The State of U.S. Tariffs

An interactive overview of the Budget Lab's tariff analysis — daily statutory rates, and the projected economic and fiscal effects of current and alternative tariff policy.
Aerial view of a waterfront shipment port with colorful containers and blue crane equipment.
Reports
Improvements to the Budget Lab Tariff Model and a new tracking tool for making it more accessible

We report updated tariff model results and debut our new State of Tariffs interactive tool.
Aerial photograph of a cargo port
Reports
One Year of Tariff Analysis: What We Got Right, What Changed, and What We Learned

On the one-year anniversary of the April 2025 tariff shock, the Budget Lab evaluates its past projections of how tariffs would affect consumer prices.
A cargo ship in the Port of Oakland
Interactives
Introducing the Tariff Rate Tracker: An Open-Source Tool for Daily Effective Tariff Rates

The Budget Lab released its open-source tool for tracking daily tariff rates by country and product one month ago!
Cargo ship in a cargo port
Reports
Tracking the Economic Effects of Tariffs
Racks of clothes in a clothing store
Analysis
The Effect of Tariffs on Poverty
Cargo ship in a cargo port
Reports
Short-Run Effects of 2025 Tariffs So Far

This report uses incoming economic data — on revenues, prices, trade, and market expectations — to examine the short-run effects of tariffs.
Default Publication
Analysis
Effective Tariff Rates and Economic Uncertainty in a Rapid Policy Environment
Three container ships at a container port.
Reports
Where We Stand: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs Enacted in 2025 Through April 2

The Budget Lab's analysis of tariffs announced on April 2nd in isolation and of all U.S. tariffs implemented so far in 2025.
Default Publication
Scores
The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of a 20% Broad Tariff

The Budget Lab modeled the total effect of an illustrative 20% broad tariffs.
Default Publication
Scores
The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of 25% Auto Tariffs
Default Publication
Scores
Real Change in Output by Commodity/Region of Tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico