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… Each horizon $h$ is a separate regression, allowing the data-generating process to differ across forecast lengths … deviation from simple log-linear trend fit to 2023–2024 data Simple: Raw year-to-date price change with no trend … at time $t$ (U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, mapped from NAICS to BEA commodity codes). Tariff rates …

… we cap NHTS responses at 100k miles/year; the processed data imply national gasoline consumption levels close to the EIA State Energy Data System (SEDS) national transportation-gasoline … $25 or less) computed directly from the household-level data. The state averages reported above are computed …

… growth to observed levels of taxable income in our data, producing an excess amount of income that is subject to … based on the observed (realized) capital income in our tax data that grows as specified in our scenarios. … document. The model is available on GitHub here, but the data used to analyze the scenarios cannot be released …

… Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released 2025 data from its American Time Use Survey (ATUS)—a key … Lab is interested in these questions, and in time-use data generally, because of the important policy discussions … alike—is the lowest for the most recent generation in our data. …

… how affordable life is for most Americans. The wage data we will receive later this week has a special … While transportation includes more than just fuel, data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (not shown) …

Coins against a blackboard with an increasing line trend

… (an overview of which can be found here ), including: New data imputations in the IRS microdata file New mechanical … calculations are available as open-source code in the Tax-Data and Tax-Simulator repositories on GitHub. … Our tax microsimulation model's main data input is a processed and projected version of the IRS …