Search
… This report updates our analysis of the long-term macroeconomic and budgetary impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (the OBBBA) to … reflect the version of the bill signed into law on July 4, 2025. On June 6, 2025, The Budget Lab published its analysis … The macroeconomic impacts of the OBBBA are substantial and increase over time, …
… In response to new tariff announcements, The Budget Lab regularly estimates … — to give a snapshot of the short-run effects, if any, of tariffs so far this year, positive or negative. There is … and good prices have generally accelerated from their pre-2025 trends, though neither has occurred yet to the extent we …
… One year ago today, on April 2, 2025, the administration announced the most sweeping tariff increases since Smoot-Hawley. At the time, The Budget … $3,800 per year. Looking back after a year of higher tariffs, we aim to re-examine this estimate of the effect of …
… and Jobs Acts (TCJA) that are set to expire at the end of 2025. The proposals also include versions of several policies … are under the jurisdiction of other committees. Note: this analysis looks merely at the conventional score for these … or long-run from passing this bill, nor do we analyze the impact of the increased debt burden on interest rates. We are …
… The Budget Lab estimates that the 10% China tariffs raise the overall price level by just over 0.1%, … In the short-run, the 10% China tariffs raise PCE prices by 0.14%, assuming the retaliatory … power of $223 per household on average. But this tariff burden is not equally shared across households. …
… the White House announced its long-awaited comprehensive tariff policy, comprising a 10% minimum tariff on countries … roughly 60 countries (see Appendix for full list). 1 This analysis presents the fiscal and economic effects of both 1) the April 2nd policy, without considering the other tariffs that have gone into effect so far this year or …
… things is the ongoing and rapid growth of federal debt. Research has shown that when Congress decides to persistently … rates rise for the overall economy ( Gomez-Cram et al., 2025 ). That suggests that the consistent pattern of deficit … In March 2025, The Budget Lab (TBL) published a study documenting the …
… Over the last several decades, budgetary analysis has moved beyond first order fiscal effects and … also has major implications for how fiscal policy impacts the economy. This question is not purely theoretical. … “indirect” taxes, a category which includes excise taxes, tariffs, retail sales taxes, and—in other countries—value …
… Over the last several decades, budgetary analysis has moved beyond first order fiscal effects and … also has major implications for how fiscal policy impacts the economy. This question is not purely theoretical. … “indirect” taxes, a category which includes excise taxes, tariffs, retail sales taxes, and—in other countries—value …
… and retirement sufficiency. Last week, the results of the 2025 survey were made available. Both the Federal Reserve … high-level takeaways from the survey, including: In 2025, median wealth was about $216,000 ; average wealth was … year-to-year, whereas wealth, a stock, is more stable. In 2025, fewer than half of the wealthiest one percent of …